HOME
America's economic Leading Analytic rose in October to the highest reading of ever recorded in 63 years, said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest. America's economic Leading Analytic rose in October to the highest reading of ever recorded in 63 years, said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest.
e-forecasting.com is a private business and predictive intelligence firm focusing on human behavior by market participants, who operate in a global economic and business environment onfluenced dynamicaly by govermental policies, geo-political developments, strategies of international institutions and turbulent plans of multi-country economic clubs.
America's Economic Leading Analytic Rose
America's economic Leading Analytic "rose in October to the highest reading of ever recorded in 63 years," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest. “A surge in housing activity led the October increase in the US leading economic barometer," Professor Simos, highlighted. Six of the seven predictive analytics that make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer improved in October. The only component that had a negative or zero contribution to America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, was consumer confidence. Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to expand, at a risk, the leading time of eLA to improve executive-driven profitability, probabilistic thinking analytic visualizes this month a high probability for the US economy to be positioned in the near future in the expansion phase of its business cycle.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
America's monthly GDP rose
USA ꟷ America's real monthly GDP "rose by a month-to-month annualized rate of 1.9 percent in September," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief. Today's flash estimate released by Monthly GDP Warp Digest reflects last month's official history revisions, and latest monthly data, visualize eleven consecutive positive growth rates in monthly˗GDP™. In the inflation front, the prices of goods and services that make up monthly-GDP™, are aggregated in national accounting framework to an overall price index - GDP price deflator - which on a month-to-month basis rose by an annual rate of (+2.7%) in September.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
America's Economic Leading Analytic Bounces Back
DURHAM, October 1, 2021, America's economic Leading Analytic "rebounded in September, following a decrease of 0.4 percent in August," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest. The bouncing back in the leading economic barometer "was led by a surge in manufacturers' orders." Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in September 2021 a probability of 96.6 percent for the economy to be positioned in the expansion phase of its business cycle in the near future," Professor Simos put forward.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
America's monthly GDP revised down
DURHAM Sept. 24 America's real monthly GDP revised down ‘to a month-to-month annualized rate of 2.2 percent in August, following an increase of 5.0 percent in July’, said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief. Today’s numbers visualize, that US economic growth, (+2.2%), is one-third of the official growth rate of (+6.6%) reported couple weeks ago for the second quarter of this year’, Professor Simos added. In the inflation front, the prices of goods and services that make up monthly-GDP™, are aggregated in a national accounting framework to an overall price index - GDP price deflator - which on a month-to-month basis rose by an annual rate of (+4.2%) in August.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August America's monthly GDP rose
DURHAM, New Hampshire, September 9, 2021... " America's real monthly GDP rose at a month-to-month annualized rate of 2.7 percent in August, following an increase of 5.4 percent in July," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief. August numbers visualize that "...in the second month of the second quarter in 2021, U.S. economy has experienced the weakest monthly GDP growth rate in the last nine months," Simos added. e-forecasting.com's analytic of probabilistic-thinking envisions a 'now' probability reading at 97 for the 'now' position of the United States economy in its expansion phase of the business cycle; it is designed for risk-loving thought leaders making anormal (singulier,fr.) decisions in search for unique opportunities. In the inflation front, the prices of goods and services that make up monthly-GDP™, are aggregated in national accounting framework to an overall price index - GDP price deflator - which on a month-to-month basis rose by an annual rate of (+4.2%) in August, as reported today in the Monthly GDP Warp Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August 2021 Economic Leading Analytic Fell After Fifteen Advances
DURHAM, New Hampshire, September 1, 2021, … America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "fell 0.4 percent in August, after fifteen monthly advances in a row," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenario and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in August 2021 an estimate of 2% probability for an economic downturn in the near future," Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July 2021 America’s monthly GDP revised up, second estimate
DURHAM, New Hampshire, August 20, 2021...based on factual, quantitative, not opinion survey-derived, and more complete source data than were available for the flash vintage, monthly national accounting shows that GDP revised up in July. " America's real monthly˗GDP™ rose at a month-to-month annualized rate of 3.9 percent in July, 0.8 percentage points higher than in the flash vintage released two weeks ago," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief. For June 2021, "…growth in monthly GDP was revised to an increase of 3.8%," Simos noted presenting highlights published today in the United States Monthly GDP Warp Digest. Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely paths in the business cycle from monthly changing economic conditions, probabilistic thinking offers measures of the levels of risk associated with the timing decisions are made for business opportunities by risk-loving executives; "...e-forecasting.com's probabilistic thinking analytic visualizes in July 2021 a reading of 97.7 probability for being in expansion phase," Simos pointed out.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July 2021 America’s monthly GDP rose - flash estimate
DURHAM, New Hampshire, August 9..." America's real monthly˗GDP™ rose in July, following a revised increase to 3.1 percent in June,” said Professor Evangelos Simos. The flash estimate for July, “combined with June’s revision, clearly show U.S. economic growth has converged to its long-term (60-year) potential of 3%...”, Simos added, presenting highlights from United States Monthly GDP Digest, released today to the public. In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator - seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 - increased by an annual rate of (+6.7%) in July, from 12.9% in June. In other words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, "…inflation, for what America produces or America buys, runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of 6.7%."
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
2021 America’s Economic Leading Analytic Rose
DURHAM, New Hampshire, August 1, 2021, …America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 0.4 percent in July, a fifteenth monthly increase in a row, clearly visualizing what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Three of the seven time-series predictive analytics that make up e‒forecasting.com's leading economic barometer, eLA™, improved in July: Manufacturers' New Orders; Stock Prices; and Technological Change in Manufacturing.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Economic Leading Analytic lifted up in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 5, 2021… America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, “…lifted up again in June, for a fourteenth month in a row," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. June’s increase in economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, “… was led by a jump in new orders, solid gains in consumers’ expectations, and substantial advances in technology, commonly called labor productivity.” Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to the leading analytic, e-forecasting.com models the most likely future economic scenaria, and detects for each scenario the level of risk involved at the timing a potential business decision is made, in searching for opportunities, commonly called ‘risk-loving’. In June, ‘probabilistic thinking’ visualized an estimate of 0.1% (nil) probability for an economic downturn in the near future, for the eighth consecutive month," Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Economic Leading Analytic Rose in May
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 4, 2021… America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 0.8 percent in May, a thirteen-monthly increase in a row for what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer; May’s increase in economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, was led by a jump in technological change, commonly called productivity. Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenaria and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in May 2021 an estimate of 0% (nil) probability for an economic downturn in the near future," Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Economic Leading Analytic Rose in May
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 4, 2021… America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 0.8 percent in May, a thirteen-monthly increase in a row for what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer; May’s increase in economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, was led by a jump in technological change, commonly called productivity. Applying probabilistic predictive intelligence to model the most likely future scenaria and detect the level of risk involved on the timing business decisions are made, "...probabilistic thinking visualizes in May 2021 an estimate of 0% (nil) probability for an economic downturn in the near future," Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Monthly GDP advanced in April
DURHAM, New Hampshire, May 28, 2021..." America's real monthly˗GDP™ was lifted up again in April," said Professor Evangelos Simos, in highlights released today for the preliminary (second) monthly GDP update. Factual quantitative, not media-driven opinion surveys monthly data, "reveal solid gains in GDP growth in the first month of the second quarter in 2021, though at a slower pace, nearly two percentage points, below the growth rate of monthly GDP in March, ..." Simos added. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+6.5%) in the three months to April 2021 from the previous period, three months to January 2021. In other words, United States "economic growth in high frequency posted a quarterly-horizon annualized change of (+6.5%) in the month of April 2021.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Monthly GDP jumped (+4.3%) in March
DURHAM, New Hampshire, April 29, 2021..." America's real monthly˗GDP™ jumped at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in March," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief, in highlights released today for the preliminary (second) monthly GDP update. Unpublished quantitative, not media-driven opinion surveys, monthly data, "reveal solid gains in GDP expenditures in March, driven by huge government assistance payments – an unthinkable 59 percent increase in personal income - filling out growth numbers in output during the first three months of 2021, to be as good as in the last quarter of 2020," Simos concluded, quoting from BEA’s first quarter press release that “full economic effects…cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate…because the impacts…cannot be separately identified.” In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator - seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 - increased by an annual rate of (+6.4%) in March to an index reading of 116.2. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, "…inflation for what America produces, or America buys, runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+6.4%)," asserted e˗forecasting.com's Fed-watcher.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March monthly GDP edged up (+0.5%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire, April 16, 2021..." America's real monthly˗GDP™ edged up at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent in March," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief, in highlights released today for the flash (first) monthly GDP update. Factual quantitative, not media-driven opinion surveys monthly data, "reveal an anemic recovery in the first three months of 2021, significantly below the 4.3 percent growth rate recorded in the last quarter of 2020, ..." Simos added. In today’s issue of monthly-GDP Warp Digest, e˗forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, "… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 3.4% in March 2021, down from 9.6% in February 2021." When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy. This decade, it seems inflation will become the most important issue in national accounting, defining, and substituting indirectly, the tax rate and budget revenues. In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator - seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 - increased by an annual rate of (+9.6%) in March to an index reading of 118.2. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, "…inflation for what America produces or America buys runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+9.6%)," asserted e˗forecasting.com's Fed-watcher, Who? The next issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash (first) estimate for February data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, April 23, 2021. Subscribers receive the Digest and data history, 1959-present, one workday before the press release day.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Economic Leading Analytic Rose Again in March
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 2, 2021 … America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 1.3 percent in March, an eleventh monthly increase in a row for what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer, led by solid gains in consumer confidence and a jump in orders for manufactured goods. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. Visualization of this month's findings from the econometric model display “the probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months to stand at zero percent in March...", Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
February 2021 America’s monthly GDP fell (-0.4%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire, March 12, 2021..." America's real monthly˗GDP™ fell at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent in February," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief, in highlights released today for the flash (first) monthly GDP update. The latest issue of United States monthly GDP Warp Digest™ visualizes in real time, "… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 4.1% in February 2021, down from 5.4% in January 2021." “When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy,” Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
January 2021 monthly-GDP rose 1.7 percent.
DURHAM, New Hampshire, February 8, 2021... e˗forecasting.com released today editorial highlights with visuals for the flash, first estimate of U.S. monthly real gross domestic product, leading to précis of visualizations for the King of Statistics, which "rose by an annual rate of 1.7% in January, from the previous month, an eight-month increase in a row for monthly-GDP," said Evangelos Otto Simos, Editor-in-Chief, U.S. monthly˗GDP Digest™. e˗forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, "… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 6.6% in January 2021, down from 12% in December 2020." When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Monthly GDP growth slows down towards potential rate
DURHAM, New Hampshire… December monthly GDP "rose for a seventh month in a row," said professor Evangelos Otto Simos. Visualization of the economywide now-analytics, which appeared in the latest issue of U.S. monthly-GDP Digest™, shows the king of statistics "rose by an annual rate of 0.7% in December, from the previous month, to $18,794 billion.” For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+4.0%) in the three months to December 2020. "In other words, America's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 hit 4.0 percent," Simos, Editor-in-Chief of the Digest, highlighted. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12% in December, up from 10.2% in November." In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator - seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 - increased by an annual rate of (+4.1%) in December, from the previous month to an index reading of 114.8. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, "…U.S. GDP-based inflation runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+4.1%)," e˗forecasting.com's Fed-watcher noted in the highlights of the Digest. Today's monthly-GDP™ preliminary estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the flash estimate, issued at the beginning of this month. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly vintage of December 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Tuesday, February 2, 2021.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
December monthly GDP rises 1.7% pushing fourth quarter growth to (+6.4%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 11, 2021… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product rose in December by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.7% to $18,923 billion. For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+6.4%) in the three months to December 2020. "In other words, America's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 hit 6.4 percent," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief at e˗forecasting.com. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 5.6% in December, down from 10.2% in November", Professor Simos added. Today's monthly-GDP™ flash estimate is based on sources that provide higher than monthly frequency data; and partially complete, preliminary, and early available monthly data usually subject to revisions. Data are acquired from governmental agencies and private organizations and modeled for national accounts consistency, if they were in raw format. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary monthly vintage of December 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, January 21, 2021.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Zero probability of future U.S. recession
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 7, 2021…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite economic barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and system-modeled predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in December, following an increase of 1.3 percent in November. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading economic barometer, led by manufacturers’ orders and technological progress, commonly called labor productivity. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for a future, i.e. upcoming, recession. Visualization of this month's findings show "...a zero probability of a forthcoming recession in the next six to nine months, compared with a reading of 99.7 percent seven months ago, May 2020," said professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November monthly GDP converges to its pre pandemic path
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 24, 2020… U.S. preliminary estimate of monthly real gross domestic product rose in November by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $18,863 billion, reflecting a downward revision in the speed of growth of 0.6 percentage point, or $9 billion, from the flash estimate reported ten days ago. For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+14.0%), in the three months to November 2020, nearly the same as in the flash estimate. "The revised numbers confirm, America's economic growth converges at a decelerating speed to its pre pandemic natural trend," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief at e˗forecasting.com. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric risk model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.2% in November, down from 16.1% in October", Professor Simos added. Today's monthly-GDP™ preliminary estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the flash estimate, issued at the beginning of this month. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly vintage estimate of November 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, January 6, 2021.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November monthly GDP rises for a sixth month in a row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 15, 2020… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product rose in November by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 2.4% to $18,872 billion. For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+14.2%) in the three months to November 2020. "In other words, America's economic growth in November continued to naturally converge, at a decelerating speed, to its long-term trend," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief at e˗forecasting.com. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.4% in November, down from 16.1% in October", Professor Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary estimate of November 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, December 23, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November Economic Leading Analytic Up for a Seventh Month in a Row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 2, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic leading analytic rose 1.3 percent in November, following an increase of 1.7 percent in October. Six of the seven forward-looking predictive analytics, which make up the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, had a positive contribution to the overall predictive intelligence business tool. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, eLA™ provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing eLA’s findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 1 percent in November...," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. And “…seven months ago, the risk of a U.S. recession posted a reading of 100 percent,” Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October Monthly GDP rose 1.9 percent
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 12, 2020… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product "rose by an annual rate of 1.9% in October, from the previous month, to $18,788 billion," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, U.S. Monthly GDP Digest. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+26.1%) in the three months to October 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, e-forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence model visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 18.2% in October, down from 27.6% in September, and substantially below to 100% catastrophe peak in June…", Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary estimate of October 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, November 19, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Monthly GDP data revisions solidify U.S. growth
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product visualizes that monthly˗GDP™ rose by an annual rate of 5.0% in September, from the previous month, to $18,738 billion. The final estimate is based on more complete source of monthly data than were available for the preliminary estimate, and end-of-month update of BEA's quarterly GDP, third quarter of 2020, used to benchmark monthly˗GDP™. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+33.1%) in the three months to September 2020, which is the third quarter’s advanced estimate of GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the national accounts predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27.6% in September, down from 89.7% in August…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, of the GDP Digest. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of October 2020 monthly GDP, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, November 6, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October leading analytic hits an all-time high
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 2, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, rose 1.7 percent in October "for a sixth month in a row, hitting an all-time high…,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Analytics Digest™. All seven components of forward-looking analytics had a positive contribution to the increase in the aggregate leading barometer, “led by technological advancements and manufacturers’ incoming orders.” Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, e-forecasting.com’ economic Leading Analytic, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. The modeled derived analytics visualize "...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months to be just 2 percent in October..." Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Upward revision in monthly GDP confirms correction from technical dip
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 19 2020… the preliminary estimate of real gross domestic product visualizes today that monthly˗GDP™ rose by an annual rate of 3.6% in September from the previous month to $18,447 billion, an $18 billion upward revision from the flash estimate released on October 8, 2020. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+26.0%) in the three months to September 2020, which by definition is an estimate of third quarter’s growth in U.S. GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 62.3% in September, down from 89.7% in August, a 26 percent points fall in a month, confirming the end of the technical four-month dip in economic activity …", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring Final vintage of September 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, November 4, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
September rise in monthly GDP concludes quarter-three growth to 25.5%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 8, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in September to $18.4 trillion, which shows $1.2 trillion more GDP than May’s reading of $17 trillion, posted at the bottom of the corona virus crisis. Based on the world’s earliest estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP, “…September’s flash monthly GDP reading concludes the earliest quarterly GDP-mark, which envisions an extraordinary growth rate of 25.5 percent in the third quarter of 2020” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made today in the October 2020 flash issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest ™. The latest monthly digest also visualizes a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 64.2 percent in September, down from 89.7% in August. This busines-cycle analytic has been in a downward trend since it hit 100 percent last June. Monthly GDP at today's prices, or nominal GDP, which officially is defined as the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed in current market prices, posted a reading of $21.2 trillion in September, which is nearly the same figure as nominal GDP ($21.5 trillion) posted in the first quarter of 2020, a ‘peak’ performance at that time before the corona virus hit adversely the economy. “The dynamic American economy has nearly closed in a few months the income gap generated by the health-related restrictions…” Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring Preliminary vintage of September 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, October 19, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
September leading analytic displays recession probability on a free fall at 5%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic edged up 1.8 percent in September, after rising 3.0 percent in August. It was the fifth consecutive increase in the earliest available U.S. leading barometer, following a 6.7 percent drop at the peak of the virus crisis last April. Six of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading analytic, led by solid gains in technological change, and foreign demand for USA-made manufactured goods. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, visualizes monthly predictions of the risk for an upcoming recession. The latest findings display"...the probability for a forthcoming downswing to be on a free fall, posting a reading of 5 percent in September,...an incredible outlook in comparison to 100 percent recession risk recorded in April and June." said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
August 2020 America monthly GDP rises 10.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 21, 2020… today’s preliminary (second) monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes $51 billion more GDP in August, formed on refreshed, complete and revised source data, than were available for the flash August estimate released earlier this month. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+10.5%) in the three months to August 2020, and hence based on two-month factual data envisions an about 10% growth-path in the third quarter, which is a “natural” growth slowdown as the economy converges to pre-crisis potential growth rates. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a derived upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 89.7% in August, down from 99.9% in July…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, October 2, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August 2020 America's monthly GDP rises 10.2%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 10, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in August to $18,181 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+9.5%) in the three months to August 2020. It was the first positive reading on economic growth after five consecutive postings of negative growth rates, ranging from (-5.0%) to (-33.5%), the result of a $2.5 trillion fall in real GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the monthly predictive intelligence national accounting system, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 91.9% in August, down from five consecutive readings of recession risk at 100% …", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest, and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, September 17, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August economic leading analytic brings best news in years
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 1, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 3.0 percent in August, following an increase of 2.7 percent in July. All seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, modeled in a business-cycle system creates monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 15 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. “It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards the 50% line for the second time in a row, the August reading confirms the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July Monthly GDP Surges 29.2%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 21, 2020… second estimate of monthly GDP surged at an annual rate of 29.2% in July, 2.6 percentage points higher than the flash estimate reported ten days ago reflecting more complete and revised source monthly data. July’s monthly GDP reading is the second highest annual growth rate on record since 1959, when e-forecasting.com’s database for U.S. monthly˗GDP™ starts. Monthly GDP at today's prices, which is officially called the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current dollars, posted a reading above $20 trillion in July, after sinking to $19 trillion figures in the previous three months. At $20.2 trillion in July, which is the middle point of 2020, U.S. current dollar GDP is just $1.2 trillion below its annual 2019 value. “Given the significant contribution of productivity to economic growth and the expected employment gains from ending “stay-at-home” restrictions, it may not be surprising to see 2020 GDP to hit a higher mark than in 2019,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the U.S Monthly GDP Digest™ and professor at the University of New Hampshire. This month's updates of U.S. monthly˗GDP™ reflect BEA's Annual Update of national accounts (NIPAs), back to 2015 for real GDP, and back to 1999 for income and saving. The history revisions and the updates for the second quarter of 2020 have been incorporated in the estimates of e˗forecasting.com U.S. monthly˗GDP™ for total consistency of the two frequencies.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
July monthly GDP jumps 26.6% following gains of 28.9% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 10, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, jumped at an annual rate of 26.6% in July to $17,718 billion of chained 2012 dollars, following great gains at a rate of 28.9% in June. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-17.5%) in the three months to July 2020, a solid improvement from a (-32.9%) fall in monthly GDP in the second quarter, three months to June. The latest evidence from monthly˗GDP™ reveal that…"US economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to be above the potential growth-path of the business cycle," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the U.S Monthly GDP Digest™ and professor at the University of New Hampshire. This month's updates of U.S. monthly˗GDP™ reflect BEA's Annual Update of national accounts (NIPAs), back to 2015 for real GDP, and back to 1999 for income and saving. The history revisions and the updates for the second quarter of 2020 have been incorporated in e˗forecasting.com U.S. monthly˗GDP™ for total consistency of the two frequencies.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July U.S. Economywide Leading Analytic Up for a Third Month in a Row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 2.8 percent in July, following an increase of 5.1 percent in June. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 49.7 percent in July..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. “It was the third consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards slightly the 50% line, the July reading seems to signal the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June monthly GDP rose by 15.5% to $17,131 billion
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, rose in June to $17,131 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Following four major consecutive falloffs, U.S. monthly GDP substantially increased by an annual rate of 15.5% in June, signaling that the economy hit bottom last May. Upcoming revisions and updates would confirm whether June’s jump in monthly GDP was a sign of a turning point or a downswing outlier in the United States business cycle. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in June, the same as in in May…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, August 7, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May monthly GDP falls for a fourth month in a row (final vintage)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in May to $16,769 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-34.8%) in the three months to May 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in May, the same as in in April…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, July 9, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June Leading Barometer Straight Up, All Components Rose!
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 5.2 percent in June, following an increase of 0.3 percent in May. Wow! All of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 85 percent in June, following 100% recession-probabilities in in the two previous months ...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May Leading Barometer Signals Turning Point to Recovery
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 8, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 0.3 percent in May, following a decrease of 7.2 percent in April. Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 100 percent in May..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
April 2020 final estimate confirms biggest monthly fall since 1959 in monthly-GDP™ history
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,438 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.8%) in the three months to April 2020. It is the biggest decline in real monthly GDP, since the concept was introduced about two decades ago, with history data starting in January 1959. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of May 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, June 8, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
April preliminary monthly estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP™ visualizes a deep contraction
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 22, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,461 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.6%) in the three months to April 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May Consumer Optimism Soars Signaling an Upcoming Big Boom
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 18, 2020… U.S. consumer confidence™ falls in May for a third month in a row. e-forecasting.com's conventional, "statistically low order" barometer, reflects the change in mood of Americans over the next six months for the world's largest market consisting of $15 trillion consumer spending per year. Derived from deep diving into higher order analytics, advanced thinking processes driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and ever-changing (dynamic) optimization, the monthly innovative “consumer optimism” barometer, which in May crosses the inevitable chasm between what’s next and what’s now,"...visualizes to thought leaders a rising optimism about the economy over the next six months," said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March final monthly estimate of monthly-GDP™ visualizes contraction for the United States
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 8, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a substantial fall in March to $18,679 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-4.8%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 99.6% in March, up from 74.4% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes 2020 first quarter growth at 0.9%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in March to $19,230 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27% in March, up from 14.9% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
January 2020 final U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 6, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
January 2020 flash U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
December's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.1%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,244 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.1%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.1% in December, up from 7.6% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Export Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in January 2020
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 3 percent in January..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
December flash vintage of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,199 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.3%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 14.1% in December, up from 11.8% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Housing Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in December
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.2 percent in December, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in November. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in December..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.5%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,176 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.5%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.5% in November, up from 9.5% in October…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November preliminary vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 16.7%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 31, 2019… e-forecasting.com's preliminary vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,146 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.1%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 16.7% in November, up from 12.1% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 22.6%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 9, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in November to $19,112 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 22.6% in November, up from 14.6% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 13.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 7, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October to $19,133 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP ™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.4%) in the three months to October 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 13.4% in October, up from 9.7% displayed in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Solid Gains in Exports, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in October
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.9 percent in October, following a zero-growth reading in September. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in October..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Stalled in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, stayed constant in September, following a decrease of 2.1 percent in August. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 38 percent in September..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 2.1 percent in August, following a decrease of 0.5 percent in July. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 70 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
 Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Consumer Confidence falls in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest, final and never revised reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion purchases per year, falls in September, for a second month in a row. Using predictive intelligence on business-cycle analytics like monthly-gdp™, contraction chronology and consumers' expectations, the model displays that "… the probability for an upcoming recession rose to 49.7% in September from 22.5% in August. As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 50.3%...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the Digest. In the published today September issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts slowing optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for Artificial Intelligence (AI) at e-forecasting.com, scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August Flash U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 11.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 14, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in August by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.6% to $19,084 billion. August's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to August 2019 from the previous period - three months to May 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.3% in August, up from 8.7% displayed in the July issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.1% to $19,052 billion. July's final monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in July, up from 7.9% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest and always final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion, fell in August, after five consecutive monthly increases since last March.
In the published today August issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts rising optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for AI Research at e-forecasting.com, data scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
 
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $19,059 billion.
July's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.9%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, predictive intelligence modeling visualized in today's published U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.7% in July, up from 7.6% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June preliminary estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 29, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $19,057 billion. June's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes the rolling three-month growth rate, a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, at (+2.1%), in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019. The latest reading of monthly GDP puts forward a recession warning analytic, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, which displays "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.3% in June, up from 6.6% reported in the May issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 16, 2018… e-forecasting.com's earliest and final-version of its US consumer confidence rose in August, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the August issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular consumer confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in August to a reading of 111.7, after rising (+0.3 percent points) in July.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 2.0% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 3, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $18,545 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.5% in May.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Economy-Wide Leading Analytic Stalled in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy-wide Leading Analytic (eLA)™, a composite indicator of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, held steady in July to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLA™ historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - stayed constant in July, after an increase of 0.4 percent in June.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Leading Predictive Analytic Rose in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 7, 2018…The e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Index (eLEI), a composite indicator of seven time-series forward looking predictive analytics, increased in June to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLEI historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - rose 0.5 percent in June, after an increase of 0.8 percent in May.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 12, 2018… The e-forecasting.com's earliest and complete monthly US consumer confidence rose in July, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the July issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in July to a reading of 111.6, after rising (+0.4 percent points) in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                              For research-data inquiries email:  research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $17,431 billion of chained 2009 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 0.7% in June. Figures for June are preliminary and figures for May are revisions from preliminary data published last month.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                For research-data inquiries email:  research-data@e-forecasting.com

America's economic Leading Analytic rose in October to the highest reading of ever recorded in 63 years, said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, at the release of the latest Leading Analytics Warp Digest.

U.S. Economic Leading Analytic by e-forecasting.com Graph October 1, 2021





































Monthly GDP| U.S. Monthly GDP | Leading Analytics | U.S. Economic Leading Analytic | U. S. Consumer Confidence | Forecasting ready-made | Consulting custom-made | HOME
info@e-forecasting.com
Telephone: 603-868-7436
e-forecasting Corporate Offices: 65 Newmarket Road, Durham, New Hampshire 03824, U.S.A.

Copyright 2021 e-forecasting.com  © All rights reserved