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...economin Leading Analytic, eLA, rose 1.3 percent in March for an eleventh month in a row.  ...economin Leading Analytic, eLA, rose 1.3 percent in March for an eleventh month in a row.
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Economic Leading Analytic Rose Again in March
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 2, 2021 … America's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, "rose 1.3 percent in March, an eleventh monthly increase in a row for what's next in the economy," said Professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made in the latest issue of the United States Leading Indicators Digest™. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer, led by solid gains in consumer confidence and a jump in orders for manufactured goods. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. Visualization of this month's findings from the econometric model display “the probability for an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months to stand at zero percent in March...", Simos added.
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February 2021 America’s monthly GDP fell (-0.4%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire, March 12, 2021..." America's real monthly˗GDP™ fell at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent in February," said Professor Evangelos Simos, Editor-in-Chief, in highlights released today for the flash (first) monthly GDP update. The latest issue of United States monthly GDP Warp Digest™ visualizes in real time, "… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 4.1% in February 2021, down from 5.4% in January 2021." “When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy,” Simos added.
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January 2021 monthly-GDP rose 1.7 percent.
DURHAM, New Hampshire, February 8, 2021... e˗forecasting.com released today editorial highlights with visuals for the flash, first estimate of U.S. monthly real gross domestic product, leading to précis of visualizations for the King of Statistics, which "rose by an annual rate of 1.7% in January, from the previous month, an eight-month increase in a row for monthly-GDP," said Evangelos Otto Simos, Editor-in-Chief, U.S. monthly˗GDP Digest™. e˗forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, "… the probability for the national economy to be in recession at 6.6% in January 2021, down from 12% in December 2020." When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, it provides the first signals of an upcoming recession in the national economy.
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Monthly GDP growth slows down towards potential rate
DURHAM, New Hampshire… December monthly GDP "rose for a seventh month in a row," said professor Evangelos Otto Simos. Visualization of the economywide now-analytics, which appeared in the latest issue of U.S. monthly-GDP Digest™, shows the king of statistics "rose by an annual rate of 0.7% in December, from the previous month, to $18,794 billion.” For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+4.0%) in the three months to December 2020. "In other words, America's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 hit 4.0 percent," Simos, Editor-in-Chief of the Digest, highlighted. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12% in December, up from 10.2% in November." In the inflation front, the price index for monthly-GDP™, officially called the GDP price deflator - seasonally adjusted and set to equal 100 in 2012 - increased by an annual rate of (+4.1%) in December, from the previous month to an index reading of 114.8. In Fed-watch words, using the price index for monthly-GDP™, "…U.S. GDP-based inflation runs at a month-to-month annualized speed (rate) of (+4.1%)," e˗forecasting.com's Fed-watcher noted in the highlights of the Digest. Today's monthly-GDP™ preliminary estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the flash estimate, issued at the beginning of this month. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly vintage of December 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Tuesday, February 2, 2021.
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December monthly GDP rises 1.7% pushing fourth quarter growth to (+6.4%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 11, 2021… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product rose in December by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.7% to $18,923 billion. For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+6.4%) in the three months to December 2020. "In other words, America's economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 hit 6.4 percent," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief at e˗forecasting.com. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 5.6% in December, down from 10.2% in November", Professor Simos added. Today's monthly-GDP™ flash estimate is based on sources that provide higher than monthly frequency data; and partially complete, preliminary, and early available monthly data usually subject to revisions. Data are acquired from governmental agencies and private organizations and modeled for national accounts consistency, if they were in raw format. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary monthly vintage of December 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, January 21, 2021.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Zero probability of future U.S. recession
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 7, 2021…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite economic barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and system-modeled predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in December, following an increase of 1.3 percent in November. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading economic barometer, led by manufacturers’ orders and technological progress, commonly called labor productivity. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for a future, i.e. upcoming, recession. Visualization of this month's findings show "...a zero probability of a forthcoming recession in the next six to nine months, compared with a reading of 99.7 percent seven months ago, May 2020," said professor Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November monthly GDP converges to its pre pandemic path
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 24, 2020… U.S. preliminary estimate of monthly real gross domestic product rose in November by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $18,863 billion, reflecting a downward revision in the speed of growth of 0.6 percentage point, or $9 billion, from the flash estimate reported ten days ago. For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+14.0%), in the three months to November 2020, nearly the same as in the flash estimate. "The revised numbers confirm, America's economic growth converges at a decelerating speed to its pre pandemic natural trend," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief at e˗forecasting.com. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric risk model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.2% in November, down from 16.1% in October", Professor Simos added. Today's monthly-GDP™ preliminary estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the flash estimate, issued at the beginning of this month. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly vintage estimate of November 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, January 6, 2021.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November monthly GDP rises for a sixth month in a row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 15, 2020… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product rose in November by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 2.4% to $18,872 billion. For monthly data, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+14.2%) in the three months to November 2020. "In other words, America's economic growth in November continued to naturally converge, at a decelerating speed, to its long-term trend," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief at e˗forecasting.com. Based on the latest estimate of monthly-GDP™, e-forecasting.com predictive intelligence econometric model, visualizes in real time, the "… probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.4% in November, down from 16.1% in October", Professor Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary estimate of November 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, December 23, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November Economic Leading Analytic Up for a Seventh Month in a Row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 2, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic leading analytic rose 1.3 percent in November, following an increase of 1.7 percent in October. Six of the seven forward-looking predictive analytics, which make up the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, had a positive contribution to the overall predictive intelligence business tool. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, eLA™ provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing eLA’s findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 1 percent in November...," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. And “…seven months ago, the risk of a U.S. recession posted a reading of 100 percent,” Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October Monthly GDP rose 1.9 percent
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 12, 2020… U.S. flash estimate of monthly real gross domestic product "rose by an annual rate of 1.9% in October, from the previous month, to $18,788 billion," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, U.S. Monthly GDP Digest. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+26.1%) in the three months to October 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, e-forecasting.com’s predictive intelligence model visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 18.2% in October, down from 27.6% in September, and substantially below to 100% catastrophe peak in June…", Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary estimate of October 2020 data, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, November 19, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Monthly GDP data revisions solidify U.S. growth
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product visualizes that monthly˗GDP™ rose by an annual rate of 5.0% in September, from the previous month, to $18,738 billion. The final estimate is based on more complete source of monthly data than were available for the preliminary estimate, and end-of-month update of BEA's quarterly GDP, third quarter of 2020, used to benchmark monthly˗GDP™. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+33.1%) in the three months to September 2020, which is the third quarter’s advanced estimate of GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the national accounts predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27.6% in September, down from 89.7% in August…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, of the GDP Digest. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of October 2020 monthly GDP, will be released at 12:01 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, November 6, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October leading analytic hits an all-time high
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 2, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, rose 1.7 percent in October "for a sixth month in a row, hitting an all-time high…,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Analytics Digest™. All seven components of forward-looking analytics had a positive contribution to the increase in the aggregate leading barometer, “led by technological advancements and manufacturers’ incoming orders.” Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, e-forecasting.com’ economic Leading Analytic, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. The modeled derived analytics visualize "...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months to be just 2 percent in October..." Simos added.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Upward revision in monthly GDP confirms correction from technical dip
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 19 2020… the preliminary estimate of real gross domestic product visualizes today that monthly˗GDP™ rose by an annual rate of 3.6% in September from the previous month to $18,447 billion, an $18 billion upward revision from the flash estimate released on October 8, 2020. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+26.0%) in the three months to September 2020, which by definition is an estimate of third quarter’s growth in U.S. GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 62.3% in September, down from 89.7% in August, a 26 percent points fall in a month, confirming the end of the technical four-month dip in economic activity …", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring Final vintage of September 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Wednesday, November 4, 2020.
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September rise in monthly GDP concludes quarter-three growth to 25.5%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 8, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in September to $18.4 trillion, which shows $1.2 trillion more GDP than May’s reading of $17 trillion, posted at the bottom of the corona virus crisis. Based on the world’s earliest estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP, “…September’s flash monthly GDP reading concludes the earliest quarterly GDP-mark, which envisions an extraordinary growth rate of 25.5 percent in the third quarter of 2020” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments made today in the October 2020 flash issue of U.S. Monthly GDP Digest ™. The latest monthly digest also visualizes a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 64.2 percent in September, down from 89.7% in August. This busines-cycle analytic has been in a downward trend since it hit 100 percent last June. Monthly GDP at today's prices, or nominal GDP, which officially is defined as the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed in current market prices, posted a reading of $21.2 trillion in September, which is nearly the same figure as nominal GDP ($21.5 trillion) posted in the first quarter of 2020, a ‘peak’ performance at that time before the corona virus hit adversely the economy. “The dynamic American economy has nearly closed in a few months the income gap generated by the health-related restrictions…” Simos added. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring Preliminary vintage of September 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, October 19, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
September leading analytic displays recession probability on a free fall at 5%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic edged up 1.8 percent in September, after rising 3.0 percent in August. It was the fifth consecutive increase in the earliest available U.S. leading barometer, following a 6.7 percent drop at the peak of the virus crisis last April. Six of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading analytic, led by solid gains in technological change, and foreign demand for USA-made manufactured goods. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, visualizes monthly predictions of the risk for an upcoming recession. The latest findings display"...the probability for a forthcoming downswing to be on a free fall, posting a reading of 5 percent in September,...an incredible outlook in comparison to 100 percent recession risk recorded in April and June." said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
August 2020 America monthly GDP rises 10.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 21, 2020… today’s preliminary (second) monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes $51 billion more GDP in August, formed on refreshed, complete and revised source data, than were available for the flash August estimate released earlier this month. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+10.5%) in the three months to August 2020, and hence based on two-month factual data envisions an about 10% growth-path in the third quarter, which is a “natural” growth slowdown as the economy converges to pre-crisis potential growth rates. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, a derived upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 89.7% in August, down from 99.9% in July…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, October 2, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August 2020 America's monthly GDP rises 10.2%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 10, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, visualizes a rise in August to $18,181 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+9.5%) in the three months to August 2020. It was the first positive reading on economic growth after five consecutive postings of negative growth rates, ranging from (-5.0%) to (-33.5%), the result of a $2.5 trillion fall in real GDP. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the monthly predictive intelligence national accounting system, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 91.9% in August, down from five consecutive readings of recession risk at 100% …", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest, and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring preliminary vintage of August 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, September 17, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August economic leading analytic brings best news in years
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 1, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 3.0 percent in August, following an increase of 2.7 percent in July. All seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. economywide leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, modeled in a business-cycle system creates monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 15 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. “It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards the 50% line for the second time in a row, the August reading confirms the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
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July Monthly GDP Surges 29.2%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 21, 2020… second estimate of monthly GDP surged at an annual rate of 29.2% in July, 2.6 percentage points higher than the flash estimate reported ten days ago reflecting more complete and revised source monthly data. July’s monthly GDP reading is the second highest annual growth rate on record since 1959, when e-forecasting.com’s database for U.S. monthly˗GDP™ starts. Monthly GDP at today's prices, which is officially called the market value of United States' output of goods and services expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in current dollars, posted a reading above $20 trillion in July, after sinking to $19 trillion figures in the previous three months. At $20.2 trillion in July, which is the middle point of 2020, U.S. current dollar GDP is just $1.2 trillion below its annual 2019 value. “Given the significant contribution of productivity to economic growth and the expected employment gains from ending “stay-at-home” restrictions, it may not be surprising to see 2020 GDP to hit a higher mark than in 2019,” said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the U.S Monthly GDP Digest™ and professor at the University of New Hampshire. This month's updates of U.S. monthly˗GDP™ reflect BEA's Annual Update of national accounts (NIPAs), back to 2015 for real GDP, and back to 1999 for income and saving. The history revisions and the updates for the second quarter of 2020 have been incorporated in the estimates of e˗forecasting.com U.S. monthly˗GDP™ for total consistency of the two frequencies.
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July monthly GDP jumps 26.6% following gains of 28.9% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 10, 2020… the flash monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly˗GDP™, jumped at an annual rate of 26.6% in July to $17,718 billion of chained 2012 dollars, following great gains at a rate of 28.9% in June. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly˗GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-17.5%) in the three months to July 2020, a solid improvement from a (-32.9%) fall in monthly GDP in the second quarter, three months to June. The latest evidence from monthly˗GDP™ reveal that…"US economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to be above the potential growth-path of the business cycle," said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the U.S Monthly GDP Digest™ and professor at the University of New Hampshire. This month's updates of U.S. monthly˗GDP™ reflect BEA's Annual Update of national accounts (NIPAs), back to 2015 for real GDP, and back to 1999 for income and saving. The history revisions and the updates for the second quarter of 2020 have been incorporated in e˗forecasting.com U.S. monthly˗GDP™ for total consistency of the two frequencies.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July U.S. Economywide Leading Analytic Up for a Third Month in a Row
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 2.8 percent in July, following an increase of 5.1 percent in June. Five of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 49.7 percent in July..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™. “It was the third consecutive monthly decline in probability for an upcoming recession since last April’s mark when this analytic posted a reading of 100%. Crossing downwards slightly the 50% line, the July reading seems to signal the economy’s return back to its growth path towards potential GDP…,” Simos added.
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June monthly GDP rose by 15.5% to $17,131 billion
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, rose in June to $17,131 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Following four major consecutive falloffs, U.S. monthly GDP substantially increased by an annual rate of 15.5% in June, signaling that the economy hit bottom last May. Upcoming revisions and updates would confirm whether June’s jump in monthly GDP was a sign of a turning point or a downswing outlier in the United States business cycle. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in June, the same as in in May…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final monthly estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Friday, August 7, 2020.
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May monthly GDP falls for a fourth month in a row (final vintage)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in May to $16,769 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-34.8%) in the three months to May 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in May, the same as in in April…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash estimate of June 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Thursday, July 9, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June Leading Barometer Straight Up, All Components Rose!
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 3, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 5.2 percent in June, following an increase of 0.3 percent in May. Wow! All of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 85 percent in June, following 100% recession-probabilities in in the two previous months ...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May Leading Barometer Signals Turning Point to Recovery
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 8, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite barometer of seven time-series, forward-looking, and model-fused predictive analytics, rose 0.3 percent in May, following a decrease of 7.2 percent in April. Four of the seven components – individually modeled - had a positive contribution to the aggregate U.S. leading barometer. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 100 percent in May..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
April 2020 final estimate confirms biggest monthly fall since 1959 in monthly-GDP™ history
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, June 3, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,438 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.8%) in the three months to April 2020. It is the biggest decline in real monthly GDP, since the concept was introduced about two decades ago, with history data starting in January 1959. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of May 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), Monday, June 8, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
April preliminary monthly estimate of U.S. monthly-GDP™ visualizes a deep contraction
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 22, 2020… the preliminary monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a fall in April to $17,461 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-20.6%) in the three months to April 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 100% in April, up from 99.6% in March…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring final vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Wednesday, June 3, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
May Consumer Optimism Soars Signaling an Upcoming Big Boom
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 18, 2020… U.S. consumer confidence™ falls in May for a third month in a row. e-forecasting.com's conventional, "statistically low order" barometer, reflects the change in mood of Americans over the next six months for the world's largest market consisting of $15 trillion consumer spending per year. Derived from deep diving into higher order analytics, advanced thinking processes driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and ever-changing (dynamic) optimization, the monthly innovative “consumer optimism” barometer, which in May crosses the inevitable chasm between what’s next and what’s now,"...visualizes to thought leaders a rising optimism about the economy over the next six months," said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March final monthly estimate of monthly-GDP™ visualizes contraction for the United States
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, May 8, 2020… the final monthly estimate of real gross domestic product, monthly-GDP™, shows a substantial fall in March to $18,679 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (-4.8%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 99.6% in March, up from 74.4% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire. The next U.S. Monthly GDP Digest™, featuring flash vintage of April 2020 data, will be released at 4:30 PM Eastern Time (USA & Canada), on Thursday, May 14, 2020.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
March flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes 2020 first quarter growth at 0.9%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, April 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in March to $19,230 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.9%) in the three months to March 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 27% in March, up from 14.9% in February…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
January 2020 final U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, March 6, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
January 2020 flash U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth at 2.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in January to $19,299 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.3%) in the three months to January 2020. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.2% in January, up from 6.7% in December…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
December's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+2.1%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 7, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,244 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+2.1%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 9.1% in December, up from 7.6% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Export Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in January 2020
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, February 4, 2020…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 1.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.1 percent in December. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 3 percent in January..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
December flash vintage of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2019
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 14, 2020… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in December to $19,199 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.3%) in the three months to December 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 14.1% in December, up from 11.8% in November…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Housing Demand, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in December
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.2 percent in December, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in November. Four of the seven components – individually modeled by data science techniques - had a positive contribution to the aggregate barometer, which is designed synergically to be more effective than the sum of its parts in detecting future turning points in the business cycle. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in December..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest™.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November's final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP on a growth path of (+1.5%)
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, January 4, 2020… e-forecasting.com's final vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,176 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.5%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 12.5% in November, up from 9.5% in October…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November preliminary vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 16.7%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 31, 2019… e-forecasting.com's preliminary vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, rose in November to $19,146 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.1%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 16.7% in November, up from 12.1% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
November flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 22.6%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, December 9, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP™, fell in November to $19,112 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+0.7%) in the three months to November 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 22.6% in November, up from 14.6% displayed in the October issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
October flash vintage of U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 13.4%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 7, 2019… e-forecasting.com's flash vintage of U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in October to $19,133 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates. For monthly frequency, the annualized rolling three-month growth rate in monthly-GDP ™, a monthly equivalent to quarterly-data growth rate, posted a reading of (+1.4%) in the three months to October 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, envisions "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 13.4% in October, up from 9.7% displayed in the September issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
Led by Solid Gains in Exports, U.S. Leading Barometer Rose in October
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, November 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, rose 0.9 percent in October, following a zero-growth reading in September. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 12 percent in October..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Stalled in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, October 1, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, stayed constant in September, following a decrease of 2.1 percent in August. Combined with current economic conditions, measured by U.S. monthly-GDP ™, the economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, provides monthly predictions of the risk for future recessions. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 38 percent in September..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
U.S. Leading Barometer Fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019…e-forecasting.com's economic Leading Analytic, eLA™, a composite of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, fell 2.1 percent in August, following a decrease of 0.5 percent in July. By visualizing the findings,"...the probability of an upcoming recession in the next six to nine months posted a reading of 70 percent in August..."said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire, in comments published today in the U.S. Leading Indicators Digest ™.
 Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Consumer Confidence falls in September
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest, final and never revised reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion purchases per year, falls in September, for a second month in a row. Using predictive intelligence on business-cycle analytics like monthly-gdp™, contraction chronology and consumers' expectations, the model displays that "… the probability for an upcoming recession rose to 49.7% in September from 22.5% in August. As a result, the probability for a future expansion posted a reading of 50.3%...", said Evangelos Otto Simos, professor at the University of New Hampshire and editor-in-chief of the Digest. In the published today September issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts slowing optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for Artificial Intelligence (AI) at e-forecasting.com, scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
August Flash U.S. Monthly GDP Visualizes Recession Probability at 11.3%
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 14, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in August by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.6% to $19,084 billion. August's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to August 2019 from the previous period - three months to May 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.3% in August, up from 8.7% displayed in the July issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July final estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, September 3, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.1% to $19,052 billion. July's final monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.8%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019. Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, the upshot from the predictive intelligence model, as published today in the Monthly GDP Digest, visualizes "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 11.5% in July, up from 7.9% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
U.S. Consumer Confidence fell in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com™ earliest and always final reading of U.S. consumer confidence, for the world's largest consumer market of $15 trillion, fell in August, after five consecutive monthly increases since last March.
In the published today August issue of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Digest, the barometer of consumers' outlook, which visualizes Americans' optimism (pessimism) from analytics on what's next vs. what's now, "...predicts rising optimism for business activity over the next six months," said Suwen Duan, VP for AI Research at e-forecasting.com, data scientist at MIT, and editor of the Digest.
 
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July flash estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 12, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in July by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 0.3% to $19,059 billion.
July's flash monthly vintage of U.S. monthly GDP displayed the rolling three-month growth rate, which is a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, to be at (+1.9%) in the three months to July 2019 from the previous period - three months to April 2019.
Based on the latest estimate of monthly GDP, predictive intelligence modeling visualized in today's published U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 10.7% in July, up from 7.6% displayed in the June issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief of the Digest and professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
June preliminary estimate of U.S. monthly GDP displays growth below potential trend
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 29, 2019… e-forecasting.com's U.S. monthly-GDP ™, rose in June by an annualized month-to-month growth rate of 1.8% to $19,057 billion. June's preliminary vintage update of U.S. monthly GDP visualizes the rolling three-month growth rate, a high frequency monthly equivalent to the popularized quarterly-data growth rate, at (+2.1%), in the three months to June 2019 from the previous period, three months to March 2019. The latest reading of monthly GDP puts forward a recession warning analytic, published today in the U.S. Monthly GDP Digest, which displays "...a probability for the national economy to be in recession at 7.3% in June, up from 6.6% reported in the May issue of the Digest…", said Evangelos Otto Simos, editor-in-chief and professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com  For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
July monthly GDP on (+3.6%) path for this quarter
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 17, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in July to $18,581 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in US Monthly GDP Digest, the volume measure of the "King of statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 1.5% in July, following an increase of 3.2% in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in August
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 16, 2018… e-forecasting.com's earliest and final-version of its US consumer confidence rose in August, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the August issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular consumer confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in August to a reading of 111.7, after rising (+0.3 percent points) in July.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 2.0% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 3, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $18,545 billion of chained 2012 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 2.0% in June, following an increase of 3.5% in May.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Economy-Wide Leading Analytic Stalled in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, August 1, 2018…e-forecasting.com's economy-wide Leading Analytic (eLA)™, a composite indicator of seven forward-looking predictive analytics, held steady in July to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLA™ historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - stayed constant in July, after an increase of 0.4 percent in June.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Leading Predictive Analytic Rose in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 7, 2018…The e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Index (eLEI), a composite indicator of seven time-series forward looking predictive analytics, increased in June to a reading of 120.0. Set to equal 100 in 2005, eLEI historically foreshadows US economic conditions five to six months ahead of the release of monthly GDP.
e-forecasting.com's early bird - released one to two months ahead of the traditional leading indicators made by the Conference Board and OECD - rose 0.5 percent in June, after an increase of 0.8 percent in May.

     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                 For research-data inquiries email: research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time High in July
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 12, 2018… The e-forecasting.com's earliest and complete monthly US consumer confidence rose in July, following today's update of the largest in scope and size consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics™.
According to the highlights published today in the July issue of the US Consumer Confidence Digest, the popular confidence measure, which is indexed to equal 100 when growth is nil, increased 0.2 percent points in July to a reading of 111.6, after rising (+0.4 percent points) in June.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                              For research-data inquiries email:  research-data@e-forecasting.com
 
US Monthly GDP rose 0.7% in June
DURHAM, New Hampshire USA, July 20, 2018… e-forecasting.com's monthly real GDP rose in June to $17,431 billion of chained 2009 dollars, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
According to the highlights published today in the US Monthly GDP Digest, the "King of Statistics in high frequency" increased by an annual rate of 0.7% in June. Figures for June are preliminary and figures for May are revisions from preliminary data published last month.
     Media inquiries for full press release contact: media-list@e-forecasting.com                                                For research-data inquiries email:  research-data@e-forecasting.com
...economin Leading Analytic, eLA, rose 1.3 percent in March for an eleventh month in a row.

February 2021, America’s monthly GDP fell -0.4 percent







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