FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact:
Maria E. Simos
65 Newmarket Road
Durham, NH 03824
Phone: 603-868-7436
http://www.e-forecasting.com
info@e-forecasting.com
e-forecasting.com RELEASES GLOBAL ACTIVITY INDEX
GLOBAL ACTIVITY INDEX AT 52 FOR 2008 Q3
Durham, NH – September 8th 2008
– Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that
global activity index hit 52 in the third quarter of 2008.
Using the ‘soft data’ findings of the World Economic Survey, a
92-country composite global business activity index is
constructed by e-forecasting.com to evaluate and forecast the
short-term worldwide business cycle. A reading of 50, the
flatline, is used as reference in evaluating the wave of
alternating booms and busts that mark the global economy. In the
third quarter of 2008, our global business activity index
registered 52, the lowest reading since the fourth quarter of
2003, indicating a flirting with a global downswing.
Historically, changes in our global activity index mirror the
growth rate of worldwide industrial production. Based on the
real time behavior of our indicator, growth in industrial
activity in the world’s leading economies is estimated to have
continued its moderation in the first three quarters of 2008.
In a note to clients, CEO Maria Simos re-emphasized, “Our first
quarter of 2008 global forecast released on February 2008,
noted, ‘The dollar will firmly enter an upward trend that will
continue in 2009.’ The bursting of the euro bubble has begun.
After reaching a peak on April 22, 2008 at a rate of 1.601
against the US dollar, the euro has fallen 8.3 percent by the
end of August to a rate of 1.468. We continue to forecast a fall
in the euro and a probability of 45 percent for the euro to
reach parity against the dollar within 16 months.”
By modeling business executives’ two-quarter-ahead expectations
into a dynamic high frequency forecast, we predict growth in the
global business activity index to weaken further in the last
quarter of 2008 and early in 2009. Global industrial production
is forecast to experience negative growth rates in the next two
quarters.
The e-forecasting.com composite index of global economic
activity also serves as an indicator of worldwide demand and,
consequently, its change from a year ago mirrors the
year-to-year growth rate in the demand for internationally
traded goods and services. Derived from the opinions of about
1,000 business experts from 92 countries, e-forecasting’s
composite global activity index has shown a strong performance
record in tracking the volume of international trade, measured
by global exports adjusted for price changes. Following gains in
2007 at a nearly 7.0 percent growth rate, growth in the volume
of international trade is estimated to continue its slowing in
the rest of 2008. Looking forward, the predictive power of our
global activity index suggests that growth in the volume of
world trade will bottom out in the last quarter of 2008,
recovering in the course of 2009.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and
consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment
using proprietary real-time economic indicators and produces
company and industry-specific leading indicators for its
clients. In cooperation with its affiliate, Infometrica, Inc.,
e-forecasting.com works with business publications and clients
across the globe to provide industry, country and state-level
economic content on a monthly and quarterly basis thus their
predictive intelligence input is used by practitioners around
the world.
For a full press release including charts,
please see attached PDF or contact:
info@e-forecasting.com
Phone: 603-868-7436
# # #
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